Importing Steel from China to Mexico: 25–35% Tariff + US$0.31/kg Anti-Dumping — the HRC Route Is Closed (2026)
Verified 2026-10-30 against the Diario Oficial de la Federación. Mexico has no FTA with China, and from 1 January 2026 non-FTA steel pays a 25–35% general tariff. On 3 September 2026 the Economy Ministry published the final anti-dumping determination on hot-rolled steel from China and Vietnam (effective 4 September): Chinese rates are US$0.3050–0.3087/kg as a specific duty — about 60% of cargo value at current HRC prices — with no sunset clause, requested by Ternium. The scope covers any width up to 25.4 mm thick, explicitly including 7225.40.91: the plate workaround is inside the measure. For Chinese HRC, Mexico is commercially closed; the open lanes are alloy grades outside the dimensional scope and downstream fabrication.
The Mexican stack on Chinese flat steel (2026)
| Layer | Rate | Notes | IVA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7208 / 7211 / 7225 / 7226 — flat steel, non-FTA origin | 25–35% (2026 increase) | no FTA route for China | 16% IVA |
| Same, temporary import (9802) | AD applies anyway | bonded regimes covered | — |
General tariff, AD and IVA stack; temporary-import regimes (9802) are explicitly inside the AD scope.
Final anti-dumping — company-specific specific duties (3 Sep 2026)
The determination is a per-kilogram specific duty: the amount does not fall when steel prices fall. Scope: hot-rolled flat of iron, carbon or alloy steel, pickled or not, uncoated, thickness ≤25.4 mm, any width — TIGIE 7208 lines, 7211.13/14/19, 7225.30.91, 7225.40.91, 7226.91.07 plus 15 temporary-import lines.
| Producer / exporter | Specific duty | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Shanghai Meishan Iron & Steel (Baowu) | US$0.3087/kg | named producer |
| Wuhan Iron & Steel (WISCO) | US$0.3050/kg | named producer |
| Non-sampled cooperating producers/exporters | US$0.3070/kg | residual-cooperator rate |
| All other Chinese producers/exporters | US$0.3087/kg | residual rate |
| Vietnamese producers/exporters | US$0.2719–0.2855/kg | parallel determination |
Read it commercially: at $500/t HRC, $0.3087/kg equals ~$309/t — the duty alone exceeds the entire pre-duty margin of most Chinese mills. The investigation (filed March 2025 by Ternium) signals Mexico is rebuilding flat-steel capacity behind the wall.
What is still open — and what is not
The scope's wording — any width, ≤25.4 mm — deliberately forecloses the plate-route escape: 7225.40.91 is listed line-by-line. Lanes that remain open: thickness above 25.4 mm heavy plate, downstream-fabricated components (subject to separate origin rules), and non-covered chapters.
If your project genuinely needs ≤25.4 mm Chinese flat steel in Mexico, the arithmetic only works for high-value alloy grades where $309/t is a tolerable share of a $1,200–1,500/t product — e.g. BS960E-class plate invoiced on specification, not on HRC-parity pricing. Baohui will quote both scenarios honestly before you commit a vessel.
Landed-cost cascade — why the HRC route stopped making sense (100 t parcel)
| Line | Amount | Note |
|---|---|---|
| HRC parcel, 100 t × $500/t | $50,000 | CIF Manzanillo |
| 2026 non-FTA duty 25% | +$12,500 | from 2026-01-01 |
| AD US$0.3087/kg | +$30,870 | ≈62% of cargo value |
| IVA 16% (on CIF + duty) | +$10,019 | creditable |
| Total exposure | ≈$103,389 | ≈107% of FOB value |
≈107% stacked exposure on FOB value is the arithmetic that redirected Chinese HRC to other markets after September 2026.
Documents Mexican customs (ANAM) will ask for
- Commercial invoice, packing list, bill of lading (pedimento basis)
- Mill test certificate matching TIGIE line and NICO
- Origin documentation (no FTA preference available for China)
- For 9802 temporary imports: AD compliance guarantee
Change log — what moved, and when
| Date | Change |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-01 | General tariff on non-FTA steel raised to 25–35% |
| 2026-03-23 | Provisional AD on Chinese/Vietnamese HRC |
| 2026-09-03 | Final AD published: US$0.3050–0.3087/kg China, no sunset; scope includes 7225.40.91 |
| 2026-09-04 | AD effective |
Related guide: electrical steel
HS 7225 also covers grain-oriented (GO) and non-oriented (NGO) electrical steel — the silicon steel grades used in transformer and motor cores. Read our guide: What is electrical steel — grades, GO vs NGO, and the global market.
Mexico steel import FAQ
What does Chinese HRC cost to land in Mexico now?
Roughly double the FOB price: 25–35% general tariff + ~US$309/t specific AD + 16% IVA. At $500/t FOB the stacked exposure is over 100% of cargo value.
Is plate under 7225.40 still a way in?
No. The final determination lists 7225.40.91 explicitly and covers any width up to 25.4 mm thick. Only plate above 25.4 mm sits outside.
Why is the AD a per-kg amount?
Mexico used a specific duty, so the burden is fixed per kilogram regardless of price — about 60%+ of value at current HRC prices, rising proportionally if prices fall.
Does the AD expire?
The published measure carries no sunset clause per current analysis; treat it as structural and re-verify before any long-term contract.
What still works for Mexico sourcing?
Heavy plate >25.4 mm, fabricated components with genuine non-China transformation, or high-spec alloy plate where the $309/t burden is a small share of the unit price.
Sources & verification
- 1Diario Oficial de la Federación (DOF) — resolución AD_34-24 (3 Sep 2026)
- 2MOFCOM trade-remedy wire — Mexico final AD on HR steel (9/2026)
- 3Eilan Trade — Mexican antidumping duties in force 2026
- 4XCB Global Steel Trade Remedies Tracker
Figures on this page were verified on 2026-10-30 against the official sources below. Data is reviewed and re-verified monthly; dates of each review are shown on this page.
